Russian Equities Weekly 27–31/01/2020: Coronavirus spreads uncertainty

  Week YTD
RTS Total return (TR) in USD -5.2% -1.8%
MOEX index TR in RUB    
Composite -2.2% 1.3%
Blue chip -2.6% -0.1%
Small and mid-cap -0.8% 9.0%
MOEX sector indices TR in RUB
Consumer Goods 0.4% 7.0%
Power Utilities -1.0% 12.1%
Financial Services -1.7% 3.2%
Metals & Mining -2.0% 5.5%
Oil & Gas -2.8% -2.6%
RUB/USD -3.0% -3.0%
RUB/EUR -3.4% -2.1%
Data as of January 31, 2019
TKB Investment Partners (JSC) calculations; Bloomberg

Russian equity market dynamics

Last week, the Russian equity market contracted in line with the other emerging markets (EM). The RTS index lost 5.2%, while the MSCI EM index declined by 5.1% (all figures in USD terms). Concerns about the spread of coronavirus continued to increase uncertainty over the outlook for global economic development.

The consumer goods sector outperformed the broader market, mainly driven by X5 Retail, whose shares rose by 6.5% in rouble terms on the back of strong Q4 results published a week earlier.

The oil & gas sector lagged the wider market. The worst performers were Gazprom and Tatneft, whose shares lost 4.7% and 4.4%, respectively. Gazprom came under pressure from lower gas prices and expectations of exporting less gas to Europe in January 2020. Tatneft underperformed despite the lack of any explanatory news.

Main Russian news

Key macroeconomic indicators were mixed in December. The increase in industrial production was due to a rise in both sectors: manufacturing and extraction. The growth in retail sales slowed in the non-food segment. The slight acceleration in food segment sales failed to compensate for this. Rosstat published real wage growth data for November, which declined to 2.7% YoY vs. 3.8% YoY in October.

Indicator Growth YoY
November 2019 December 2019
Industrial production 0.3% 2.1%
Manufacturing 0.1% 3.4%
Extraction 1.4% 1.8%
Retail sales 2.3% 1.9%
Food 1.6% 1.8%
Non-food 3.0% 2.1%
Real wages 2.7% not available

To watch…

Central Bank of Russia meeting on monetary policy is scheduled for this week.


Author: Marina Tsutskiridze, Junior Investment Specialist

Sources: Rosstat, Vedomosti, Bloomberg, TKB Investment Partners (JSC); January 2020

Russian Equities Weekly 3 February2020_STE
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