Russian Equities Weekly September 27 – October 1, 2021: Riding on the energy wave

Russian equity market dynamics

Last week, the Russian equity market outperformed the broader emerging markets by 2.3%.

This was mostly due to the difference in the two indices’ sector structures. The Russian market was mainly supported by its overweight in the energy sector, which rose by 2.8% in the EM index. Additionally, the absence of the IT sector in the Russian index contributed positively to the relative excess return, as the sector fell by 5% in the EM index.

  Week YTD
MSCI Russia 10/40 TR in USD 0.9% 23.0%
MSCI EM index TR in USD -1.4% -1.8%
Excess return 2.3% 24.8%
Due to Russia specific factors* 0.1% 11.1%
Due to difference in sector structure* 2.2% 13.6%
MSCI EM HDY index TR in USD** -0.6% 6.1%
Key commodities***
Oil 2.4% 55.5%
Gold 0.6% -6.9%
FX    
RUB/USD 0.3% 1.9%
RUB/EUR 1.7% 7.2%
* See details of methodology at the end of the report

**MSCI Emerging Markets High Dividend Yield Index

*** We use Brent Oil and LBMA Gold price data, in USD terms. Energy weight in the MSCI Russia 10/40 is 35%; gold producers’ weight in the index is 8% (as at the end of August 2021)

Data as of 1 October 2021

TKB Investment Partners (JSC) calculations; Bloomberg

  Current
Upside/downside to fair price 10%
Data as of 1 October 2021

TKB Investment Partners (JSC) calculations

Main Russian news

Russia’s key macroeconomic indicators were mixed in August. Industrial production increased on an annualised basis in both the manufacturing and extraction segments but at a lower rate than in July. Retail sales strengthened both relative to the previous month and on an annualised basis, mainly thanks to an acceleration in food purchases. Rosstat published real wage growth data for July which showed an increase of 2.2% YoY.

Key macroeconomic indicators, YoY dynamics

  July 2021 August 2021
Industrial production 7.2%* 4.7%
Manufacturing 3.7%* 3.1%
Extraction 12.0%* 6.4%
Retail sales 5.1%* 5.3%
Food 1.7%* 2.8%
Non-food 8.3%* 7.5%
Real wages 2.2% Not available

*Data updated by Rosstat

 

To watch…

Rosstat is due to publish inflation figures for September 2021.

 

Author: Aleksandra Kuznetsova, Investment Specialist

Sources: Vedomosti, Bloomberg, TKB Investment Partners (JSC); October 2021

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